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Enterprise Quantum Exposure Analysis

Analysis of cryptographic deployment patterns across Fortune 500 environments reveals significant Harvest Now, Decrypt Later (HNDL) exposure windows that require immediate migration planning.

83%

of Fortune 500 companies

rely on RSA-2048 or weaker encryption for public-facing TLS

Key Findings

83%
of Fortune 500 use RSA-2048 or weaker

Based on Certificate Transparency log analysis of publicly visible TLS certificates.

Source: CT Logs via crt.sh, CensysHigh confidence
<5%
have begun PQC migration

Percentage of enterprises with any post-quantum algorithm deployment in production systems.

Source: NIST PQC adoption surveys, vendor announcementsMedium confidence
10-15 years
HNDL exposure window

Time gap between data sensitivity lifespan and quantum-safe cryptography deployment.

Source: NSA CNSA 2.0 timeline, crypto deprecation schedulesHigh confidence
$4.2B
estimated exposure by 2030

Projected breach costs for quantum-vulnerable data based on current trajectory.

Source: IBM Cost of Breach + compound growth modelingMedium confidence

Methodology

1

Certificate Analysis

Analyzed TLS certificates from Fortune 500 primary domains via Certificate Transparency logs. Identified algorithm types (RSA, ECC) and key lengths. Sample: 500 primary domains, December 2025.

2

Key Strength Classification

Classified certificates by NIST SP 800-57 key strength equivalencies. RSA-2048 = 112-bit security, RSA-3072 = 128-bit, RSA-4096 = ~140-bit. ECC P-256 = 128-bit.

3

PQC Adoption Assessment

Cross-referenced vendor announcements, NIST PQC migration case studies, and public statements from Fortune 500 CISOs to estimate PQC deployment status.

4

Exposure Window Calculation

Calculated exposure windows by comparing data sensitivity lifespans (trade secrets: 10-20 years, PII: 50+ years) against CNSA 2.0 migration deadlines (2030-2033).

Data Sources

Certificate Transparency Logs

Public CT logs provide visibility into TLS certificate issuance across domains.

Data points: Algorithm types, key lengths, validity periods

Censys Search

Internet-wide scanning data for public-facing services.

Data points: Protocol versions, cipher suites, certificate chains

NIST Publications

Official NIST guidance on cryptographic standards and timelines.

Data points: Algorithm recommendations, deprecation schedules

NSA CNSA 2.0

NSA guidance for national security system cryptography.

Data points: Migration timelines, algorithm requirements

IBM Cost of Data Breach Report

Annual analysis of data breach costs across industries.

Data points: Average breach costs, cost drivers, industry variations

Limitations

This analysis has the following limitations that should be considered when interpreting findings:

  • CT log analysis only captures publicly visible TLS certificates; internal infrastructure not included
  • PQC adoption estimates rely on public disclosures; actual deployment may be higher
  • Breach cost projections assume historical growth rates continue
  • Fortune 500 sample may not represent smaller enterprises

Citation

Qryptonic Research. (2026). Enterprise Quantum Exposure Analysis: Cryptographic vulnerability patterns across Fortune 500 environments. Qryptonic. https://www.qryptonic.com/research/quantum-exposure-analysis

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